Thomas Tuchel is no fool. He knows the Manchester City team who Chelsea defeated on Saturday were a shadow of the one he will face on May 29. The one he eliminated in last month’s FA Cup semi-final were little better, either.
Yet beat them he did. And as a coach Tuchel knows that matters, too.
It is hardly a shock that it was Liverpool who came for City after back-to-back title victories. Between August 25, 2014, and January 3, 2019, City played Liverpool 11 times and won once — when Liverpool went down to 10 men after 37 minutes.
Thomas Tuchel has led Chelsea to two wins over Manchester City in the space of a few weeks
Even if they haven’t played the best version of Pep Guardiola’s side yet, these wins still matter
So while Tuchel’s Chelsea have not played the real City yet, they have played City Lite and have found a way to beat them twice.
Pep Guardiola’s squad is so versatile it is hard to settle on a precise formation or structure. Yet the best XI would probably be a combination of: Ederson, Walker, Dias, Stones, Zinchenko, Cancelo, Rodri, Foden, Gundogan, De Bruyne and Mahrez. Just three of that number started at the weekend and four in the semi-final.
Chelsea made changes, too. Yet the fact remains Chelsea have the psychological edge.
Tuchel has found a way of beating City, just as Jurgen Klopp did, and undoubtedly that can play on the mind of a manager and his players.
Guardiola was tetchy after the game. No doubt irritated by the Sergio Aguero penalty miss, the one that should have been given but wasn’t for a foul on Raheem Sterling, and the lateness of Chelsea’s winning goal through Marcos Alonso.
The Manchester City manager was in a tetchy mood both during and after the frustrating loss
There was something else, too. The faux-sincerity in the way he kept offering Chelsea his congratulations, his abrupt answers to reasonable questions.
Chelsea had got under his skin in a way other opponents have not. They will be the only team to beat City twice in the 2020-21 campaign and will go for the hat-trick in the Champions League final.
It is pointless pretending that game takes place in isolation, away from history. Coaches like to think this. Yet can anyone argue that Klopp and Liverpool didn’t get into City’s heads in the years leading up to that first Premier League title? Anyway, this is not just about one set-piece game in three weeks’ time. This is about next season and the years after that until Chelsea tire of Tuchel, as inevitably, and sometimes inexplicably, happens.
A fit Liverpool and the resurgence of Manchester United notwithstanding, Chelsea are shaping up as the biggest challenge to City going forward. If they could ever locate a striker who knew how to stay onside — and that is not Timo Werner right now, sadly — they could be a genuine threat.
Tuchel knows his side can take real confidence into the Champions League final after big wins
Before the game, Tuchel had insisted the result would have little impact on the Champions League final, and that was sensible talk. In victory, though, he was beginning to see the positives in having laid down another marker.
‘Sure, it’s not a disadvantage for us to have this experience, in such a short time, to beat them twice,’ he said.
‘We know very well that if you play a final, it’s very special and you fight for every centimetre and every advantage that can make you win the game.
‘But, yes, it gives us the true belief we can do it because we’ve already done it. We’ll arrive in Istanbul and try to preserve this feeling and this momentum.
‘The best way to play a final is to be self-confident and we can conserve this feeling from these two matches. We have to because we have high ambitions and the players want to have big success.
‘You really have to work for it, you have to live it and this is what they are doing, and this is what’s very pleasing as a coach. This is what they signed up for when they signed for Chelsea. This is what impresses me.’
The Chelsea boss has an incredible record against so many of the best managers in the game
It has impressed a lot of others, too. Tuchel’s record against the best coaches in European football so far has been incredible. Jose Mourinho, Diego Simeone, Klopp, Carlo Ancelotti, Zinedine Zidane, Guardiola — all have been beaten, some on multiple occasions already.
And Guardiola, as we know, has been accused of over-thinking these match-ups in the past, certainly in Europe.
This is his first final since leaving Barcelona. Most certainly, Tuchel will have succeeded pre-match if he has set Guardiola’s mind racing because strange things can happen.
Only Ruben Dias and Bernardo Silva feature in the top five player appearance lists for both Premier League and Champions League at City this season. Plainly Guardiola sees European football and the domestic programme as very different.
The final later this month will be Guardiola’s first since winning it with Barcelona back in 2011
‘We played in the Premier League and now in the Champions League,’ he said. ‘We’re going to decide the way we’re going to play, because today we adapted for the quality of players we had. But we’ll be ready to compete.’
Before that, there is the title to win. The book remains closed on Manchester City but, even so, if Manchester United collect maximum points from the two games they play before Guardiola’s team are next in action — on Friday, at Newcastle — there will only be four points in it. Could the unthinkable happen?
‘We still have to get the points, and when we get the points, we will be champions,’ Guardiola stated. ‘Until then, the champions are Liverpool. Since one or two months ago, people said it was already done. No, we had to go to Leicester and win away, Aston Villa and win away, Crystal Palace and win away.
‘Now we have to go to win at Newcastle and, if not, we’re going to try to win at Brighton. You all said that the Premier League is over, but this is why it’s not.’
Manchester City are a great side with a great coach but the challengers can take them on
Yes and no. If Manchester United slip, Manchester City could be walking into a guard of honour at St James’ Park on Friday, rather than a minefield.
Yet what Saturday’s result proved, more than anything, is that talk of a procession or of a lengthy period of domination may have been exaggerated. Manchester City are a great side, with a great coach, and this may yet prove their greatest season, but there are forces already massing to take them on.
Tuchel knows he hasn’t played Guardiola’s A-team yet, but he’s played plans B and C and not fared poorly against either.
He’ll fancy his chances whether at Wembley or in Istanbul.
Right now, he’s the Martini manager. He should fancy his chances any place, anywhere, any time.
